错误的原因导致错误的决策
工党国防事务发言人
国家党政府一意孤行决定派兵到伊拉克，尽管在大选前夸下海口不会这样做，这是错误原因驱使下的错误决策。
我们派143名士兵前往巴格达附近的塔吉营地，方便其中的16名军官可以在那里训练伊拉克士兵。这样的派兵部署风险极高，置我们的战士于火箭式炸弹和迫击炮袭击，地雷和所谓的蓝绿（Green on Blue）攻击——即那些被训练的士兵把枪口对准他们的训练者。
尽管此次派兵部署风险很高，但不幸的是训练的效果却甚微。美国已经花了十年时间和耗资$250亿为伊拉克士兵提供训练和装备，到头来也是努力白费。伊拉克士兵与ISIS交战时没有太多搏杀就被囚禁而那些美国配备的武器装备却落入恐怖者的手中所用。
美国所作的无效努力以及我们的16位教官极小影响，究其根本原因，我们无法去影响应该去改变的事情。伊拉克军队一直困扰于松散和腐败的领导层，将50,000名存实亡士兵的军饷据为己有；军队士气低沉。军队的宗派分歧反映了伊拉克的根本性问题和武器装备转移给同样有战争罪恶的什叶派。对于叙利亚军队，我们无法去包揽他们都不愿意为自己利益争取的事情。
国家党政府明知派兵不会起到任何影响，最糟糕的去想，也就是一个象征性的表示。这不是派新西兰的士兵去维护人权或甚至奢想去帮助终结ISIS。之所以政府这样妄自决策，原因就像John Key在BBC新闻里承认的，这是作为五个西方国家俱乐部会员国资格的一部分。 而这恰恰破坏了我们独立外交政策的信誉，特别是对去年刚当选联合国安理会的成员国声誉形象也产生致命的影响。
确实需要采取行动来对抗ISIS和其他团体包括总统萨德叙利亚政权和逊尼派及什叶派。他们都犯下残酷的战争和危害人类罪行。然而，屡次的西方国家干预都以巨大的人力和财力成本代价而失败告终。我们和国际社会需要更灵活策略来应对。
首先，我们需要发挥我们在联合国安理会的作用， 去采取有效的行动去阻止金钱、武器和军官流向ISIS。这将导致他们后方军饷困乏而难以发动战争。
其次，我们可以推动联合国和国际社会采取有效行动去解决ISIS在该地区大获成功的原因所在。这些原因都未能阻止叙利亚的冲突和压迫，也并未能解决逊尼派及什叶派在伊拉克的教派冲突。这些问题不解决，ISIS或是其他将继续从该地区获得很多人支持。
第三，投资在伊拉克派兵的$6500万，与其无任何成效的寄托希望，不如把钱用在该地区拯救生命和减轻当地1300万难民的一些苦难。
相比于国家党政府的象征性派兵决策，这些举措更有可能有所作为以缓解该地区人民的困境和创建一个更安全的世界。
(English version as below for reference)
Wrong Decision for Wrong Reasons
The Government decision to send New Zealand troops to Iraq, despite promising before the election not to do so, was the wrong decision for the wrong reasons.
We are sending 143 New Zealand soldiers to Camp Taji near Baghdad so that 16 of them can train Iraqi soldiers. It is a high risk deployment, which could subject our soldiers to rocket and mortar attacks, road mines and the so-called green on blue attacks. The attacks are when those being trained turn their guns on their trainers.
If the deployment is high risk, unfortunately the outcomes from the training are, on the other hand, likely to be low. The United States has invested 10 years and US$25 billion in training and equipping the Iraqi army and their efforts have failed. The Iraqi Army caved in without much fight when confronted by ISIS and their US supplied weaponry is now being used by the terrorists.
The reason US efforts have failed and our 16 trainers won’t make a difference is because we can’t influence the things that need to change. The Iraqi Army suffers from poor and corrupt leadership that pockets the pay of 50,000 ghost soldiers who don’t exist. Morale is low. The Army represents the sectarian divide that underlies the problems of Iraq, and weaponry is siphoned off into Shia militias who are also guilty of war crimes. We can’t do for the Syrian Army what they won’t do for themselves.
The National government knows its contributions won’t make a difference and is tokenism at its worst. It’s not sending New Zealand troops to protect human rights or even in the expectation that it will help stop ISIS. It is doing it, as John Key admitted to the BBC, because it is part of our membership of a select club of five Western nations. That undermines our reputation for having an independent foreign policy, which was a critical factor in being elected last year to the United Nations Security Council.
Action does need to be taken against ISIS as well as other groups including President Al-Assad’s regime in Syria and Sunni and Shia militias. All have committed brutal war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, time and again Western interventions in the region have failed with huge human and financial costs. Both we and the international community need to be smarter in our response.
Firstly, we should use our position on the United Nations Security Council to demand effective action to stop money, weaponry and personnel going to ISIS. That would starve them of resources to wage war.
Secondly, we should be pushing for effective action from the UN and international community to tackle the causes of ISIS’s success in the region. Those causes are the failure to stop the conflict and oppression in Syria, and the failure to address the Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict in Iraq. Unless these problems are addressed, ISIS or something like it will continue to draw support from many people within the region.
Thirdly, instead of the $65 million we are investing in sending soldiers to Iraq without hope of any real achievement, that money could be put into saving lives and alleviating the suffering of some of the 13 million refugees in the region.
These initiatives are more likely to make a difference to ease the plight of people in the region, and to make a safer world, than the National government’s token decision.
